The Energy Information Administation (EIA) is projecting that based on current legislation, the proportion of electricity generated from coal-fired plants will continue to decline, reaching 38% in 2020. The decline is primarily due to the low price of natural gas and the EPA’s Cross-State Air Pollution Rule and the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards. The projected fuel mix is sensitive to natural gas prices and the performance of the economy.

The EIA is also projecting that 49 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired capacity will be retired through 2020.  That is about one-sixth of the existing coal-fired power generation capacity in the U.S.

The projection of coal-fired retirements is sensitive to natural gas prices and economic growth and could range from a low of about 30 GW to 70 GW depending on the performance of the economy.  Most of the retirements are expected to occur in parts of the U.S. where there is excess capacity currently. 

The EIA’s projection does not include possible future regulation such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency proposed carbon pollution standard for new power plants.  

EPA is proposing that new fossil‐fuel‐fired power plants meet an output‐based standard of 1,000 pounds of CO₂ per megawatt‐hour (lb CO2/MWh gross).  New natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plant units should be able to meet the proposed standard without add‐on controls, but new power plants designed to use coal would need to incorporate technology to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to meet the standard, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS).

The EPA’s new proposed rule would not apply to existing units already operating or units that will start construction over the next 12 months.