Spatial analysis finds that methane emissions from fossil fuel extraction may be 5X larger than current estimates

Methane is one of the more potent greenhouse gases for global warming, but it is not clear just how much more potent methane is than CO2.  The EPA has estimated a factor of  21 times compared to carbon dioxide. But Robert Howarth, an environmental biology professor at Cornell University, has argued that it is actually 72 times as powerful as carbon dioxide in terms of its warming potential.  Furthermore  Howarth has argued that the type of shale gas drilling taking place in Texas, New York and Pennsylvania generates particularly high emissions of methane. A study has estimated that between 3.6% to 7.9% of the methane from shale-gas production escapes to the atmosphere in venting and leaks over the lifetime of a well.

A study just published has assessed the spatial distribution of anthropogenic methane sources in the United States by combining comprehensive atmospheric methane observations, extensive spatial datasets, and a high-resolution atmospheric transport model. Based on the results of this analysis the authors conclude that the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) underestimates methane emissions nationally by a factor of ∼1.5.

Generally the study finds that methane emissions due to the animal husbandry and fossil fuel industries have larger greenhouse gas impacts than indicated by existing inventories.

The study concludes that there is a wide regional variation in the discrepancies in methane emissions and that the discrepancy is particularly large in the south-central United States.  There the study reports its results are ∼2.7 times greater than EPA estimates.  South-central emissions account for 24 ± 3% of national emissions.  Based on their analysis of the the spatial patterns of methane emissions and correlations between methane and propane,  the authors conclude that fossil fuel extraction and refining are major contributors (45 ± 13%) to methane emissions in the south-central United States.

EDGAR Emissions Inventory EC logoFurthermore based on their analysis the authors  suggests that regional methane emissions due to fossil fuel extraction and processing could be 4.9 ± 2.6 times larger than in the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), an international inventory of past and present day anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases maintained by the European Commission JRC Joint Research Centre and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL).

Geoff Zeiss

Geoff Zeiss

Geoff Zeiss has more than 20 years experience in the geospatial software industry and 15 years experience developing enterprise geospatial solutions for the utilities, communications, and public works industries. His particular interests include the convergence of BIM, CAD, geospatial, and 3D. In recognition of his efforts to evangelize geospatial in vertical industries such as utilities and construction, Geoff received the Geospatial Ambassador Award at Geospatial World Forum 2014. Currently Geoff is Principal at Between the Poles, a thought leadership consulting firm. From 2001 to 2012 Geoff was Director of Utility Industry Program at Autodesk Inc, where he was responsible for thought leadership for the utility industry program. From 1999 to 2001 he was Director of Enterprise Software Development at Autodesk. He received one of ten annual global technology awards in 2004 from Oracle Corporation for technical innovation and leadership in the use of Oracle. Prior to Autodesk Geoff was Director of Product Development at VISION* Solutions. VISION* Solutions is credited with pioneering relational spatial data management, CAD/GIS integration, and long transactions (data versioning) in the utility, communications, and public works industries. Geoff is a frequent speaker at geospatial and utility events around the world including Geospatial World Forum, Where 2.0, MundoGeo Connect (Brazil), Middle East Spatial Geospatial Forum, India Geospatial Forum, Location Intelligence, Asia Geospatial Forum, and GITA events in US, Japan and Australia. Geoff received Speaker Excellence Awards at GITA 2007-2009.

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