Navigating the Dangers of Congested Orbital Space

Is outer space too vast to be polluted? Will it eventually self-clean?

Let us not forget that humans have a tendency to spread pollution. What we observe around us serves as the most profound silent testimony to our historical presence on Earth.

Plastic pollution in water, air pollution from the release of harmful gases into the atmosphere, and deforestation for development purposes, all contribute to significant environmental issues, yet the negative consequences of these actions are often overlooked. Outer space is not spared as well.

What is orbiting up there?

Since the launch of the first-ever satellite, ‘Sputnik,’ in 1957, there has been a significant acceleration in technological advancements and satellite communications.

According to European Space Agency, the count of objects until 2023 is classified based on its orbital regime and plotted on a graph. Low-Earth Orbit(LEO) surpasses all other orbits.

According to the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs, there are approximately 9,000 satellites in orbit that facilitate mobile data transmissions, communication, navigation, weather monitoring, and Earth observation. As the number of satellites in space grows, so does the hazard of space debris.

These non-functional objects orbiting rapidly travel at speeds of approximately 20 to 25 times the speed of sound. It poses a serious hazard to satellites, astronauts, and future space exploration efforts. Although the probability of collision is low, it remains a serious concern.

Almost everyone has this question: Do the leftover pieces of space debris fall to earth?

Huge fragments from exploded space missions have fallen to Earth in the past. They do burn up while traveling through our atmosphere. However, some debris still reaches the ground.

For instance, on a late December day in 2024, fragments of a defunct satellite or a separation component from a spent rocket stage—measuring eight feet in diameter and weighing over a thousand pounds—crashed onto fields in a remote town in Kenya, glowing red as it descended from the sky.

On the other hand, pieces of space junk are susceptible to colliding to each other too, with the speed and energy of a bullet. This creates a spark lightning burst, creating a little cloud of dust. It also creates an electric charge when they rub against each other. These sparks continue to happen every day. Some debris is even too small to track.

Kessler syndrome and its impacts

Kessler Syndrome , is named for American astrophysicist Donald Kessler and based on his 1978 academic paper  about ‘The creation of debris belt’. This is a harmful phenomenon in which space debris collides with one another. One collision trigger another, eventually ending in a chain reaction of collisions. The cascading impact may continue until Earth’s orbit is so jammed with trash that orbital space become useless, bringing space exploration to an unexpected halt. It is even speculated that the process has already kicked off.

Looking at the unprecedented number of satellites launches in this century, in 2021, a list of the 50 largest pieces of space debris identified for priority retrieval was published.

The graph of total satellite along with other objects has been rising since.

Apparently, our dependency on satellites for the seamless operation of nearly all sectors is so significant that it is essential to understand the implications of a scenario in which they are unavailable.

Kessler syndrome could lead to this situation if we persist in treating space as a waste disposal area. The possible outcomes are unfathomable, including the disruption of satellite communications, which could take us Pre- GPS era.

Climate change leading to more space debris?

Climate change is impacting not just our planet but also the space above it, particularly in low Earth orbit, which is a key area for satellite launches.

Researchers from  Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) suggests that by 2100, climate change could shrink the usable space for satellites in this orbit by up to 82%. Typically, the greenhouse effect warms the air near the Earth’s surface while cooling the upper atmosphere, where satellites operate.

The cooling and thinning of the upper atmosphere caused by greenhouse gases leads to reduced drag on space debris, resulting in more orbital clutter, meaning that less debris will be pulled back down to Earth.

Call for the orbital space sustainability

What we urgently need is a real-time monitoring system that continuously keep an eye on space debris, track it and eventually collect it. There are ongoing initiatives and awareness about sustainable space. Lets have a look at some of them:

• The University of Calgary is currently engaged in data collection from the Cascade Smallsat and Ionospheric Polar Explorer (CASSIOPE) satellite, which it operates, in collaboration with the University of Alaska Fairbanks. The objective of this partnership is to develop methodologies for the detection of space debris and to forecast its trajectory, thereby enabling the proactive repositioning of satellites to avoid potential collisions.
• The European Space Agency (ESA) intends to collaborate with the Swiss aerospace firm ClearSpace to initiate the inaugural space debris removal mission in 2025. This mission will involve deploying a “chaser” spacecraft equipped with four robotic arms to capture a piece of space debris. Nonetheless, there are worries regarding the expenses and the possibility of atmospheric pollution associated with such initiatives.
• The recent research presents an alternative approach for our planet: significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This action could aid in reestablishing balance in the upper atmosphere.
• Zero Debris Charter: A global initiative signed by 12 countries, including Austria, Belgium, and Cyprus, aiming to eliminate space debris by 2040.
• Inter-Agency Debris Coordination Committee (IADC): An international government forum coordinating activities related to man-made and natural debris in space.
• UN Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines: A framework designed to prevent the growing threat of space debris.
• Space Debris Identification and Tracking (SINTRA) : SINTRA is utilizing supercomputing resources and artificial intelligence algorithms that have been developed using comprehensive archival datasets to identify the distinctive signatures produced by small, rapidly moving debris.
• India has also pledged to achieve debris-free missions by the end of the decade.

So, what’s next? It is up to us. The universe isn’t going to clean up after us. With a sense of duty, and for future generations to have the freedom to explore space just like we did, its time to prevent space from becoming a bigger junkyard.